MLB: Can These Baseball Studs Maintain Their Pace? - Joe Chacon's Blog

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Joe Chacon's Blog

MLB: Can These Baseball Studs Maintain Their Pace? Stuck

Posted on July 12, 2012 at 06:53 PM.

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Thursday is usually when we release our weekly MLB Power Rankings. Due to the break in the action I thought we'd have a "fun with stats" class.

If you're a baseball fan chances are you love stats. You spend part of your day at work looking up league leaders, team rankings, situational stats, spray charts, etc.

Part of the fun at the All-Star break is to take a look at what stats some of these players are projected to finish the season with.

Stat projections are assuming the same amount of plate appearances in the second half of the season as they received in the first half. Players like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper will have more at-bats in the second half (barring injuries) and so their projections may be a bit on the low side.

I went through some of the league leaders as well as a few of the more popular players to see how they would do if they maintained the same pace they have started the season with.

Here are the players and the numbers they are projected to finish 2012 with:

American League

Batting
Mike Trout (LAA): .341 AVG, 23 HR, 74 RBI, 49 SB
Josh Hamilton (TEX): .308 AVG, 51 HR, 141 RBI
Derek Jeter (NYY): .308 AVG, 13 HR, 48 RBI, 212 Hits
Jose Bautista (TOR): .244 AVG, 51 HR, 122 RBI
Adam Dunn (CHW): .215 AVG, 51 HR, 118 RBI

Pitching
David Price (TB): 21-8, 2.82 ERA, 198 SO
Jered Weaver (LAA): 19-2, 1.96 ERA, 138 SO
Justin Verlander (DET): 17-9, 2.58 ERA, 241 SO
Jim Johnson (BAL): 2-0, 1.21 ERA, 50 SV

National League

Batting
Ryan Braun (MIL): .306 AVG, 46 HR, 116 RBI
Carlos Beltran (STL): .296 AVG, 38 HR, 122 RBI
Andrew McCutchen (PIT): .362 AVG, 34 HR, 114 RBI, 27 SB
Bryce Harper (WAS): .282 AVG, 16 HR, 49 RBI, 20 SB

Pitching
R.A. Dickey: 23-2, 2.40 ERA, 232 SO
Gio Gonzalez: 23-6, 2.92 ERA, 230 SO
Stephen Strasburg: 18-8, 2.82 ERA, 250 SO
Clayton Kershaw: 11-9, 2.91 ERA, 222 SO

In taking a look at these projected stats it becomes evident we can cross a few of the numbers off the list immediately:

Mike Trout will not finish the season with a .341 batting average.
Derek Jeter will not get 212 hits.
Josh Hamilton and Adam Dunn will most likely not surpass 50 home runs.
R.A. Dickey will not win 23 games...nor will Gio Gonzalez.
Jered Weaver will not have less than a 2.00 ERA.

There are some projections that I feel these players will surpass:

Derek Jeter will knock in more than 48 runs.
Jose Bautista will hit for higher than a .248 clip.
Clayton Kershaw will win more than 11 games.
Stephen Strasburg will not get to 18 wins or 250 strikeouts due to his pending inning cap.

Part of the backbone of the reason why we love baseball is culmination of statistics. We've seen time and time again how a player can be red hot in the first half of the season only to burn out and finish with just a "good" season.

There are some great storylines to look forward to in the second half. For more on the National League storylines I encourage you to take a look at Gary Armida's column here on OS.

Take a look at the numbers I've outlined above. Who do you think can maintain their current pace? Who's flying under the radar that can still put together an MVP season?

The baseball season is a marathon, but for fans like you and me, it's going fast!

Joe Chacon is a Staff Writer for Operation Sports and a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JoeChacon.